More foreigner bashing

With CoStar reporting that the volume of trading in the third quarter (£8.7bn) has experienced a 27% drop from Q2’s £12bn and a 42% fall from the same quarter a year ago, the income from investment agency for the large firms must be taking a similar hit. Another group that have taken a big hit in Q3 have been foreign investors who invested before the referendum.  There’s quite a lot of them.  When analysing a data set 9126 office sales in 28 European cities in 15 countries between 2000 and 2013 with a total value of c€380 billion, my colleague Anupam Nanda and myself found that London alone accounted for over half of all transactions by value. London had transaction volumes that are nearly five times greater than the next largest destination of office investment – Paris. Foreign investors accounted for approximately half of the investment in London.  Things got even hotter in 2014 and 2015.  Paradoxically, since the referendum UK real estate has got approximately 20% cheaper for overseas investors and, at the same time, overseas investors have made losses of 20% due to currency depreciation (it’ll vary with the reporting currency).  If you add in a fall in capital values of around 5%, that’s quite a lot of performance pain for pre-referendum foreign buyers.  It’ll be similar in the residential sector – I suspect that there won’t be that much sympathy.


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